Wow. Everything is happening at once. Fantasy football has started (2 drafts yesterday, A+ in one, C in the other), the big project I've been planning for 12 months at work is in high gear, HUrt (high school ultimate) first practice is tomorrow and after my promotion to coach the A team there are high expectations (state champion streak, 2nd place finish at Nationals, with a higher finish at Nationals every year we've gone so far), my poker play has gotten better (and more profitable) than ever, and most importantly the UPA series is nearly upon us.

It's true what Schmelzeielzelze wrote: no one worth reading in the ultimate blogosphere is writing about cool strategy stuff right now. And with good reason! Everyone worth reading is likely being read by their competition. No one wants to tip their hand. Well, no one except Seillor, but he and CLX have nothing to lose. I've actually felt the same hesitation to post team strategy stuff for most of the season. Although, I'm not sure why that is, considering the only readers of my blog are either (a) the man who designs our strategy or (b) in the high school division.

For some reason, no one in the ultimate world does predictions. It's time for that to change. CHC is this weekend so let's do this. I don't know what kind of roster to expect from the teams traveling from the east coast, but I imagine they'll be bringing a full squad. Which mixed team wouldn't want to play in this tournament? Three of the top 5 ranked teams (Ice, who probably doesn't belong, CLX, back to back semis appearances, and Moe, my team) are there, plus a couple perennial championship contenders and a few others who look to be preparing for a UPA Championships berth, and George Cooke is the TD. Sounds like a good formula. Now, to my predictions:

My inclination here, given CLX's seemingly weaker early rounds in previous tournaments, given that 6 Trained Monkeys edged out CLX last year, and given that they lost a couple big men from their roster, is that CLX might again fall to 6 Trained Monkeys. 6TM, however, is seeded 8th! This tells me George knows something we don't know (i.e. they're not bringing a full strength squad). Pool standings: CLX, 6TM, Third Coast, Hot Dish

Well, after what looks like it was probably a pretty disappointing finish at a seemingly hometown tourney (that looked to be filled with several odd resuls), I don't expect the Annapolis All Stars to bring a very strong squad. I'm guessing Pleasuretown was "Friends with benefits" at thier hometown tourney (FWB won it), but their subsequent results weren't all that impressive. Seiche has the capacity to bring a good game so you can't really take them too lightly. I think we'll take the pool pretty handily, maybe keeping 2 of the games close for a while, because that's what we seem to like to do. Standings: Moe, All Stars, Seiche, Pleasuretown.

Gooseysnakefister must be the Carleton team. Who knows what ICE will bring, but Seillor's assessment about how they might be win-the-UPA-championship-good might be a little overblown considering they didn't give us much of a game after about the sixth point of our game at Cooler. I heard two things from multiple sources about them at Cooler: (a) they were missing people at Cooler and (b) they had their new players with them, but the ringers can't play at Regionals. We'll see if they're at CHC. Puppet Regime looks pretty solid. Posting two victories against each of Slow White and AAS? Pretty good. I think the phrase least likely to be heard by anyone in this pool is "and we would have gotten away with it, too, if it weren't for those Meddling Kids." They've got their hands full. I'm rooting for them to score 10 points in their pool play games, combined that is. Standings: Puppet Regime, ICE, Goosey, Meddling Kids.

Slow White is hot. They've not lost since mid July. Black Molly sure is getting a lot of respect after such a mediocre showing at their last tournament. Again, might have to do with a tuned in TD. Mr. Briefcase has shown a superior ability to make short order out of inferior teams. Unfortunately that ability has not translated into better battles against better bodies. I think that's about to change, though, as they do have a bit of home field advantage here. Another 4 seed has a tough road ahead. Hopefully Soy Nuts brings a deck of cards or some other form of alternative entertainment. Standings: Slow White, Briefcase, Black Molly, Soy Nuts.

CLX had a good run, but the winning streak ends here. Slow White is going to take them down. CLX just has not played any elite team yet except Moe, a team they know well and a team that hasn't been playing to win, but playing to give everyone PT in "the big game." And it's too bad, too, because it's going to set up yet another CLX-Moe meeting. This time it'll be in an earlier round, though.

Puppet Regime is in for a surprise. Moe D isn't just good. It's "routinely shut down 6 receivers for 10 stall counts" good. Plus, our best downfield defender returns this weekend and a move on the O line is going to pay big dividends. Moe wins.

The only team that has a chance for an upset in the quarters is ICE, but they'll draw us and we'll win.

Semis:

Slow White vs. Puppet Regime.
Slow White just seems too hot right now and the stars are aligning for them to build some serious momentum. Slow White wins by a decent margin.

CLX vs. Moe
Well, there's a little more at stake in this game. Until now, our meetings haven't meant you don't get another game if you lose. That'll be the extra motivation the team needs, both to play better and to tighten the lineup. Plus, games to 13 are for suckaz. We win 15-12.

Finals:

Slow White vs. Moe
Our D is just too good. Plus, if the weather forecast is accurate, rain is likely. We've had rain in just about every tournament. That experience is going to come in really handy, especially given that our O line handlers are turnoverless machines right now. Slow White is going to have to work hard to keep this one close. Moe takes the trophy home, 15-11.

Oh, the open division? Well, Sub Zero has this year traveled more than ever. They've lost most of the games you'd expect them to lose, plus a few more, without really pulling off any big upsets. That said, they're getting some big big game experience against big big teams. They got games against both Furious and Sockeye last weekend. They lost to DoG earlier this season, who also made an appearance at ECC. DoG's results were far less impressive, but I have to imagine they had a much weaker roster, given the greater travel distance. I'd be pretty shocked to see anyone but DoG and Sub Zero in the finals. And DoG should win. If you get bonus points for each player over 25 players on your roster, however, Sub Zero will win by 10.