Friday, September 29, 2006

O Boy

My offensive woes are over.

Northwest Plains Sectionals was this past weekend. On Saturday, I was perfect. I think I played a little over half of the D points, which amounted to probably about 26. Every pass I threw was caught and I caught every throw to me, including one I probably shouldn't have caught -- a laser shot behind me that I caught between my middle and ring fingers, no thumb. I threw 7 goals, including 3 in our game against my Hopkins kids and 2 hucks. I caught 2 goals. At most, my line was scored on 5 times, which meant I was involved in the scoring 9 of 21 chances.

On D, there were really too few opportunities to do anything. I don't recall a single BIG D by anyone all weekend, but that's because we were putting enough pressure on marks and cutters that we were forcing errors rather than making big Ds. I had just 3 Ds. As usual, solid on the dump all day. My one defensive highlight was a huck deflection about 10 yards from the thrower, close enough to make me worry for a second that my hand might be broken. My guy only cut deep once all day and I ended up hacking the kid they call Hopkins on Hot Dish pretty badly. And altogether, my downfield D was pretty solid. My guy barely ever got the disc and when he did it was usually on a break throw, after which I never allowed an easy continuation throw. I was scored on once by a Norgaard hammer to Matty Spillum.

Sunday on O was a bit different. We had just one game, the Championship. I threw 3 passes that fell incomplete. One was a horrible horrible huck that should not have been thrown in the first place. I had no mark and Baker was open by 20 yards, but there was still a woman and her defender 20 yards behind him and the wind had picked up since I had warmed up. Another was something I talked briefly with Mike about. I saw him start his cut and I threw to him, but he had already started cutting away and he never even thought the throw was to him. I'll take 75% or more credit on that one. The other was a swing to a male handler who was jogging directly at a female defender. The female poach came off for an easy D. At the time, it looked like one step closer to the disc or just a reach out to catch it and it would have been completed, but from watching the video last night, it looked much worse, although the video was shot with a poor perspective of the play. While I thought this was about 25% my fault, I'll take 75% based on the footage.

The closest I got to a D in the finals came on a tough mark that forced a bad huck. It might have been the comical highlight of the weekend, too, since there were people on the field telling the thrower to call the foul when there was literally no contact. The thrower even said something to the effect of "I wanted to call a foul, but I didn't expect he wasn't going to foul me."

So, 2.5 turns on the weekend and plenty of scoring. On Saturday, I'd even say I was probably the most productive and efficient offensive player, with maybe Jeanine as an exception. Every time I turned around she was catching a goal. I'll bet she caught 10+.

Our team? Well, we just plain dominated. Our O line was perfect on 23 of 23 chances. Our D, while we weren't laying out left and right, was forcing errors all over the place. The score reporter says Salsa Police scored 7 on us, but my guess is that no one in that game would know the difference or probably even argue if it read 13-3.

Team D, I noticed, was exceptional with Schwa, Mike, Baker, and Lou for the men. Our women almost always outmatch our opponent's women. With Schwa and Mike down field and me and Baker guarding handlers, everyone on the field has to work to get open AND to throw (if they do manage to get the disc). A good combination. I really feel like it's a nearly guaranteed turn when Baker and I are covering the handlers and a weak thrower gets the disc or even if a decent thrower lets the count get above 6.

Altogether, our only weakness heading in to the UPA series was O line conversion and this weekend was a huge testament to its improvement -- and we've still not gotten back our 2 arguably most valuable O line players.

Up next: Regionals talk.

Wednesday, September 20, 2006

I saw The Illusionist tonight and am so thankful I did. After rewatching SE7EN yesterday, I longed for a feeling I've not had in a long time, a feeling I never know I'm having until it's gone. Now that I've seen SE7EN, I can never ever EVER watch it again without knowing Gwen's head is in that box. I'll always know. Occasionally I do forget how movies end, but that's because they are largely forgetable. It's the big twists that I can never forget and never again be surprised when the secret is revealed.

Leaving the theater and reflecting on the movie gave me pause to contemplate that, after this season is over, I'll know exactly how it ended for Moe. Good, bad, average, or mediocre, once I know and I'll know forever. Right now, however, it's a mystery. All these moments leading up to the ending are what make the ending special. Truth is, no ending, either good or bad, will ever signifcantly affect me if I've not invested in it. The greater the investment, the greater the impact. So how will this end? And is it worth the wait? I don't know how it will end, but what I must remember, no matter the finale, is that the journey has been reward enough already. And yes, it is worth the wait. I have my hard work and my teammates to thank for that.

Tuesday, September 12, 2006

Chicago HEAVYWEIGHT Championship sure lived up to its billing this past weekend. Well, at least in the Mixed division. I unfortunately screwed up my predictions slightly because of my misread of the 1 seed crossovers. At the risk of dislocating my shoulder, let me pat myself on the back:

1. On the pool play predictions, I nailed every spot except the C1/C2 spot. ICE won 9-8 to take the pool by a hair, else I'd have been 16 for 16.

2. Though we didn't meet in the 1 seed crossover, Moe's D was indeed too much for Puppet Regime. Our O line troubles in this game were a microcosm of our tournament as we began the game failing to get a break on D followed by our O line being broken 4 points in a row. The 5-0 gap closed as soon as the O line scored, though, and our D line got on the field. We closed it to 6-5 before the D finally missed a break. The O line then got broken again to make it 8-5 at half with the cap nearly upon us. The O line started second half going downwind and scored in just a few throws, then our D line ran the table to win the game 9-8. D line was 7 for 9. Exciting win to make it to semis.

3. Briefcase did, in fact, make use of their home field advantage with an impressive showing.

4. DoG and Sub Zero in the finals with the DoG victory. I wish I'd have recorded my predicted score, as it was just what I was thinking.

I think my Moe predictions to win weren't because of my provincial nature, but because at press time I didn't know we would be missing 2 of our top 4 O line players, including our #1 handler whose name I won't bother mentioning.

One thing I really liked about the weekend (and all season long) is that we're shedding what was evidently a very bad image. Call it what you will, but many refer to it as the Paul Norgaard effect. With Mr. Norgaard off the roster, it's pretty hard to find anything or anyone to dislike about any of our players. Even the remnants of the hateable me have seriously diminished if not completely vanished -- though that still doesn't prevent some people from occasionally projecting fault of bad circumstances onto me by virtue of proximity. A number of our opponents didn't say "good luck" or "good game" in the post game handshake, but "we better see you guys at Nationals" instead. We even had a player in the finals wearing a Moe temporary tattoo. On his forehead.

In terms of how Moe played, as I mentioned, our defense was more than any team could handle. Our O line, however, was a bit worrisome. Despite missing 2 of our top 4 offensive threats, we still should have been able to convert at a much higher rate than we did. Just 2 of 8 in the quarterfinals and I think it was 4 of 14 in the semifinals. I think maybe part of the problem is that our O line tries a little too hard to win the game for us. Truth is, O line can't win the game for you. The O line can only lose the game (barring 0 breaks, 0 turns, which will never happen against an elite opponent), whereas the D line can only win the game. Thankfully, that's exactly what the D line was doing most of the weekend.

Overall, I think we established ourselves as being in the UPA Championship conversation. With an anemic offense we still only lost 2 games, one point each to the two teams in the finals. It seems, though, that we need to feel like our backs are against the wall in order to get to get really fired up. If we can manufacture that state for ourselves, I don't envy our opponent, whomever they may be.

My play was a little better on O, a little weaker on D. I still made several unforced errors, though I did come closer to identifying the cause. On Saturday, I had 5 passes that fell incomplete. Two of them went to receivers who were wide open and made a totally unexpected cut in a direction away from where I was throwing and one hesitated as I threw the disc to make the pass uncatchable. I'll take 25% credit on the first two and 75% credit on the last one, leaving me at 3.25 turns for Saturday. My first two touches on Sunday were turns, but perfect after that. On hucks, I was 2 for 3. One was about 55 yards and perfect to Pat. Another was ugly, but right on target. And the turn was about 50 yards and caught, but the wind pushed it about 1 yard out of bounds. As usual, no drops.

Saturday, I had 5 Ds. One point block, one block from the cup, 2 dumps shut down, and 1 D on a cut underneath. I was scored on 3 times. Twice deep, and once on a break throw while guarding the ISO that I still hit pretty hard. One deep score on me was pretty embarrassing. The guy had position on me while we waiting a long time for the disc. He boxed me out and was pushing me back and back and back until he caught the disc easily. My embarrassment got the best of me and I didn't call a foul. Thinking back, calling anything would started a serious argument, even though it was unquestionably a foul. Sunday I shut down 2 dumps that resulted in turnovers. My D play of the day, though, had to be stopping a first throw after a pull that landed in the back corner while we were putting on our zone D.

Saturday I had 4 thrown goals and 2 received. Sunday, 1 thrown goal.

Total line, 5 TG, 2 RG, 7 D, 5.25 TO. I'm very happy with these numbers. Relative to the rest of the handlers on the team this weekend and most of our O line, that line is pretty good. Moreover, I'm happy with my play. One thing I noticed is that I was again involved in another momentum building big play. I like making big plays. Last season at Sectionals, I had a callahan that started a run of 7 points needed to beat Madison in the semis. At MUDI in the CLX game I had a poach D and huck that helped start a run. In Madison, I made a first throw layout D in the endzone against Optimus Lime that sparked some more focus in a contentious game. At Cooler, I had a pretty unexpected layout D in the endzone, although that didn't have the same effect as the others. And in our Annapolis game this past weekend, up by one late in the game, I shut down a dump that forced a bad throw. Mike caught the pass and I was already busting deep. I ran it down and caught it just inside the goalline. The team got a bit energized and we ran the table to win the game. I'm not saying that I'm the team inspiration, because in fact Baker's and Mike's catches this weekend were far more inspirational, but lately it's been fun to be lucky enough to be a part of momentum shifting type of plays.

As well as our whole team played this weekend, if we're able to get healthy enough by Regionals, I can honestly see us not giving up 10 points to anyone until Nationals. Considering our season until this point, though, that's kind of a big IF.

Tuesday, September 05, 2006

Wow. Everything is happening at once. Fantasy football has started (2 drafts yesterday, A+ in one, C in the other), the big project I've been planning for 12 months at work is in high gear, HUrt (high school ultimate) first practice is tomorrow and after my promotion to coach the A team there are high expectations (state champion streak, 2nd place finish at Nationals, with a higher finish at Nationals every year we've gone so far), my poker play has gotten better (and more profitable) than ever, and most importantly the UPA series is nearly upon us.

It's true what Schmelzeielzelze wrote: no one worth reading in the ultimate blogosphere is writing about cool strategy stuff right now. And with good reason! Everyone worth reading is likely being read by their competition. No one wants to tip their hand. Well, no one except Seillor, but he and CLX have nothing to lose. I've actually felt the same hesitation to post team strategy stuff for most of the season. Although, I'm not sure why that is, considering the only readers of my blog are either (a) the man who designs our strategy or (b) in the high school division.

For some reason, no one in the ultimate world does predictions. It's time for that to change. CHC is this weekend so let's do this. I don't know what kind of roster to expect from the teams traveling from the east coast, but I imagine they'll be bringing a full squad. Which mixed team wouldn't want to play in this tournament? Three of the top 5 ranked teams (Ice, who probably doesn't belong, CLX, back to back semis appearances, and Moe, my team) are there, plus a couple perennial championship contenders and a few others who look to be preparing for a UPA Championships berth, and George Cooke is the TD. Sounds like a good formula. Now, to my predictions:

My inclination here, given CLX's seemingly weaker early rounds in previous tournaments, given that 6 Trained Monkeys edged out CLX last year, and given that they lost a couple big men from their roster, is that CLX might again fall to 6 Trained Monkeys. 6TM, however, is seeded 8th! This tells me George knows something we don't know (i.e. they're not bringing a full strength squad). Pool standings: CLX, 6TM, Third Coast, Hot Dish

Well, after what looks like it was probably a pretty disappointing finish at a seemingly hometown tourney (that looked to be filled with several odd resuls), I don't expect the Annapolis All Stars to bring a very strong squad. I'm guessing Pleasuretown was "Friends with benefits" at thier hometown tourney (FWB won it), but their subsequent results weren't all that impressive. Seiche has the capacity to bring a good game so you can't really take them too lightly. I think we'll take the pool pretty handily, maybe keeping 2 of the games close for a while, because that's what we seem to like to do. Standings: Moe, All Stars, Seiche, Pleasuretown.

Gooseysnakefister must be the Carleton team. Who knows what ICE will bring, but Seillor's assessment about how they might be win-the-UPA-championship-good might be a little overblown considering they didn't give us much of a game after about the sixth point of our game at Cooler. I heard two things from multiple sources about them at Cooler: (a) they were missing people at Cooler and (b) they had their new players with them, but the ringers can't play at Regionals. We'll see if they're at CHC. Puppet Regime looks pretty solid. Posting two victories against each of Slow White and AAS? Pretty good. I think the phrase least likely to be heard by anyone in this pool is "and we would have gotten away with it, too, if it weren't for those Meddling Kids." They've got their hands full. I'm rooting for them to score 10 points in their pool play games, combined that is. Standings: Puppet Regime, ICE, Goosey, Meddling Kids.

Slow White is hot. They've not lost since mid July. Black Molly sure is getting a lot of respect after such a mediocre showing at their last tournament. Again, might have to do with a tuned in TD. Mr. Briefcase has shown a superior ability to make short order out of inferior teams. Unfortunately that ability has not translated into better battles against better bodies. I think that's about to change, though, as they do have a bit of home field advantage here. Another 4 seed has a tough road ahead. Hopefully Soy Nuts brings a deck of cards or some other form of alternative entertainment. Standings: Slow White, Briefcase, Black Molly, Soy Nuts.

CLX had a good run, but the winning streak ends here. Slow White is going to take them down. CLX just has not played any elite team yet except Moe, a team they know well and a team that hasn't been playing to win, but playing to give everyone PT in "the big game." And it's too bad, too, because it's going to set up yet another CLX-Moe meeting. This time it'll be in an earlier round, though.

Puppet Regime is in for a surprise. Moe D isn't just good. It's "routinely shut down 6 receivers for 10 stall counts" good. Plus, our best downfield defender returns this weekend and a move on the O line is going to pay big dividends. Moe wins.

The only team that has a chance for an upset in the quarters is ICE, but they'll draw us and we'll win.

Semis:

Slow White vs. Puppet Regime.
Slow White just seems too hot right now and the stars are aligning for them to build some serious momentum. Slow White wins by a decent margin.

CLX vs. Moe
Well, there's a little more at stake in this game. Until now, our meetings haven't meant you don't get another game if you lose. That'll be the extra motivation the team needs, both to play better and to tighten the lineup. Plus, games to 13 are for suckaz. We win 15-12.

Finals:

Slow White vs. Moe
Our D is just too good. Plus, if the weather forecast is accurate, rain is likely. We've had rain in just about every tournament. That experience is going to come in really handy, especially given that our O line handlers are turnoverless machines right now. Slow White is going to have to work hard to keep this one close. Moe takes the trophy home, 15-11.

Oh, the open division? Well, Sub Zero has this year traveled more than ever. They've lost most of the games you'd expect them to lose, plus a few more, without really pulling off any big upsets. That said, they're getting some big big game experience against big big teams. They got games against both Furious and Sockeye last weekend. They lost to DoG earlier this season, who also made an appearance at ECC. DoG's results were far less impressive, but I have to imagine they had a much weaker roster, given the greater travel distance. I'd be pretty shocked to see anyone but DoG and Sub Zero in the finals. And DoG should win. If you get bonus points for each player over 25 players on your roster, however, Sub Zero will win by 10.